Player prop research
Prop hit rates: find props that hit historically
A player prop hit rate tells you how often a player’s recorded results cleared a particular line and side. If you are looking for “props that hit,” start with the exact threshold, the number of usable games and the current price. A strong historical record is a research starting point, not a prediction.
How PROP & SEEK calculates a prop hit rate
The board divides wins by graded games, then multiplies by 100. Graded games include wins, losses and pushes. A push remains in the denominator but does not count as a win. Missing results are excluded from graded games and displayed as missing coverage. This convention matters when comparing our percentages with another tool.
Hit rate = wins ÷ (wins + losses + pushes) × 100. With seven wins, two losses and one push, the rate is 70.0%. With no graded games, the rate is unknown; it is not 0%.
See the NBA half-point study for a real example of how changing a threshold turns wins into pushes.
Try the player prop hit rate calculator
Enter counts for one player, market, line and side. The starting numbers are an illustrative example, not an actual player’s results. Missing games do not become losses.
Why the same player can have different hit rates
A player clearing 20 points has not necessarily cleared 24.5 points. Recalculate the history at the threshold you are researching. Receiving yards, receptions and rushing-plus-receiving yards are separate markets. Over and Under are separate selections, too.
PROP & SEEK keeps sport, native game and player IDs, market, side and line together. When comparing a sportsbook quote, keep that identity intact. A more favorable-looking price on a different line answers a different question.
Read the sample before sorting for the highest percentage
A 100% record from two graded games contains less evidence than a longer sample. Compare the available 3, 5 and 10 team-game windows and season history, then look for a change in minutes, carries, targets or ice time. Do not treat a missing appearance as a zero or infer a starter role from a DNP.
Compare L5, L10 and season hit rates before deciding whether a recent streak represents a comparable workload.
A high hit rate does not establish a profitable price
Decimal odds of 1.50 imply a break-even win probability of about 66.7% in a simple win-or-loss bet. A historical 70% record does not prove a future 70% chance. Price, uncertainty, role changes and the possibility of a push all matter. Use the prop odds comparison guide to separate price from past performance.
Common questions
What does it mean when a prop hits?
For an Over prop, the recorded total must exceed the line. For an Under, it must fall below it. An equal result is a push in our history grading. The sportsbook’s own settlement rules govern an actual wager.
Can I find guaranteed props that hit?
No. Historical hit rates describe past results at a chosen line. They do not guarantee the next result or establish a calibrated probability.
Do missing games lower the hit rate?
Unknown results are excluded from graded games. They reduce coverage, which is why you should read the sample and missing-game information alongside the percentage.